Sweltering sun in rainless skies. Hot, dry winds. Parched pastures, shriveled crops and water shortages.

Some version of this scorching scenario plays out every year in the United States. Drought plagues at least 10 percent of the nation annually, costing roughly $6 billion to $8 billion.

Drought is inevitable. Planning is society's best defense, said Don Wilhite, director of the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska. Drought is a normal part of climate throughout the United States. Governments that anticipate risks and minimize them will be best prepared when drought hits.

The center, established in 1995, aims to help reduce society's vulnerability to drought. Its research aids drought planning, forecasting, monitoring and coordination.

"The idea of mitigation is to take actions before drought to reduce your vulnerability or improve your ability to cope with it and recover," he said. "You can't reduce all the risks, but if people think about where, when and why they're vulnerable, they may be able to employ strategies to reduce vulnerability."

Drought planning has changed in recent years. In the 1980s, it focused on responding to drought, or crisis management. The center advocates more proactive planning that includes risk assessment and management, and preparation.

"It's much more cost-effective to invest in pre-drought kinds of programs to lessen risk than to try to provide relief after drought occurs," Wilhite said. "That relief does nothing to reduce risks for the next drought. If you adopt a risk management program, that's long-term."

Wilhite is revising a widely used planning tool he developed earlier to better emphasize risk assessment and mitigation. It's based on his 20 years of drought research. His step-by-step process outlines information governments need to create drought plans.

"It's generic. Whether they're in Illinois, Atlanta or Brazil, anyone should be able to follow the process, adapt it to their needs and develop a drought plan," he explained.

For example, if a community identifies water supplies as a weakness, it might drill new wells, arrange for backup sources or launch water conservation efforts before drought.

The center assists governments with drought planning. Staff recently helped New Mexico with a plan that emphasizes mitigation and preparedness rather than response. A similar process is under way for Nebraska, which is updating its 1988 plan. More than 30 states now have drought plans, compared with three in 1982.

Researchers also seek better forecasting and monitoring tools. The center helped the Western Governors' Association's Western Drought Coordination Council create a regional drought and water supply monitoring system. This system provides a comprehensive picture of regional conditions for policy-makers, states, federal agencies and others.

"We pushed for a regional monitoring system. The next step is a national integrated monitoring system," Wilhite said. "I think that will happen in two or three years."

It's important to better understand drought characteristics, frequency and severity, and society's changing vulnerability.

"Lots of things have changed in a positive way over the years but other things have increased our vulnerability. We need to be aware of those things," Wilhite said. "We have more people, they're more concentrated in urban areas, there's more demand for water and more interest in the environment."

What if a drought as severe and long as the 1930s strikes today?

"The perception is that because of all we've learned and all the new technology, the impacts wouldn't be nearly as great. I would say the impacts would be different but actually would be greater. Our economy has changed a lot. The dollar costs would go through the ceiling."

A USDA special grant funds the center.

- Vicki Miller

Drought has played a significant role in Nebraska's weather history. Above: A dust storm and erosion in Franklin County photographed in March 1935.

Don Wilhite, director of the National Drought Mitigation Center at NU, points out that drought is a normal and costly part of climate throughout the United States. The nation's worst recent drought in 1988-89 cost $39-$40 billion, the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history. The center advocates proactive risk management to reduce society's drought vulnerability.